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Surviving the Next Wave: Experts say a million may be dead by April. Don’t want to join them? Consider this Survival Guide.
By
Published: Nov 10, 2020
Category:
Health
Now comes the winter of our discontent.
245,000 dead in 9 months?
That was just a preview.
Here’s the feature: Last week, the country had more than 784,000 cases, more than in any other week of the pandemic. We recorded 10 million coronavirus cases on Monday, November 9, just 10 days after hitting 9 million. That translates to 900 deaths a day, and each day it’s more. At this rate, we’ll top a thousand deaths a day soon: 30,000 a month. Or more.
Unless the country commits to rigorous safety precautions, we may see a million deaths by March. That’s the population of San Jose. The population of Jacksonville. The population of Charlotte. Dead. Dead. Dead.
Says who? Says William Heseltine, president of the global think tank ACCESS Health International, former Harvard Medical School professor and founder of the university’s cancer and HIV/AIDS research departments. “It’s going to get a lot worse. We’re looking at easily an excess of 100,000 infections a day and overwhelmed hospitals all over the country.”
The problem, experts say, isn’t 100,000 infections a day. It’s the upward trajectory.
“It’s going to get a lot worse,” said Dr. Haseltine, who was at Ground Zero during the HIV/AIDS and anthrax crises. “We’re not even near the peak.”
Being human, you say: “This doesn’t apply to me. I didn’t join a mini-mob on Trump’s ‘See, I Can Still Draw a Crowd’ tour of airport runways. I wasn’t at the White House or at the Sturges Motorcycle Rally. I don’t live in the Dakotas. I’m not one of those unmasked morons who shout ‘Freedom!’ as they’re being hustled out of Walmart. I voted Blue. I danced in the streets. If anyone will be spared, I’ll be.”
And being human, you may say, less loudly and only to your inner circle, “It’s going to be like the first wave. It will kill the poor, the unhealthy, people who don’t have the luxury of working from home — you know: Blacks and Hispanics.”
Bullshit.
Heseltine: “Now it’s just about everywhere across the country.”
The vaccine? Sounds great. If you watched the “60 Minutes” report on Operation Warp Speed, you saw a General deliver a reassuring message: the military will deliver a vaccine. Soon. It’s an impressive effort — the exact opposite of the Administration’s disjointed, corrupt, don’t-give-a-shit approach to the pandemic. Of course the General is speaking of a vaccine that hasn’t been approved. The Pfizer vaccine, announced the day after the “60 Minutes” report, is said to be 90% effective, but Pfizer declined to accept government money, so no one in the White House knew about it. By January, Pfizer says, it can produce enough vaccine to immunize 20 million people. The government’s supply of a different vaccine is smaller — not even enough to immunize the healh care workers who will be the first to be offered the vaccine.
A million deaths? Okay, the forecasting team at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle just estimated the cumulative total of deaths across the United States by February 28, 2021 as… 511,373. That almost certainly includes someone you know. Or you.
And here come the holidays. Should we gather together to ask the Lord’s blessing? William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, says yes… if everyone’s been recently tested for COVID and has routinely been wearing masks. But don’t make sentimental exceptions. Coronavirus transmission is heightened in poorly ventilated indoor spaces, where people aren’t distancing or using masks. “The risk of developing a serious illness increases rapidly for those over 40 — a 50-year-old’s risk of dying from COVID-19 is 200 times higher than normal.” If you must host a dinner, open windows are your best defense. “It may be somewhat cold in the room, but this is an opportunity to get out those fall sweaters we all like to wear.”
For the duration, though, most days will be like today. Headlines that strip the joy you felt when 51% of us celebrated the result of the election. Isolation of every kind. A routine that requires you to find joy in the same old same old. And, each and every day until January 20, the knowledge that the Superspreader-in-Chief wouldn’t even mist up if you died.
Bluntly: Your survival is on you.
The good news: You’re the boss of yourself.
I’m 240 years old. I have a lung condition that has mostly disappeared, thanks to a $75,000-a-year drug I don’t pay for. For decades, only my typing fingers burned calories. But I have a daily routine that works for me and may be useful for you. The theme: my lungs.
MASKS
As soon as I step outside, on it goes. And not just because I’m headed to a store. It’s second nature now. I expect to be doing this straight through 2021. I say: Pretend we’re living in Beijing. To buy a pack of 15 disposable masks from Amazon, click here. To buy high quality masks with a filter pocket from Alice Glass, a Butler reader and theatre artist in Berkeley, click here.
GINGER TEA
Ginger has powerful anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties. But not so much in tea bags or pills. You want fresh ginger root. Peel it. Slice it. Boil it in a lot of hot water, enough for several cups; you’ll soon want to substitute it for coffee. Pour it, slices and all, so it steeps, into a Zojirushi Stainless Steel Thermos. In the cup, I add a little honey. [To read about this remarkable thermos and buy it from Amazon, click here.]
WALKING
This is the most important thing I do each day, not just for my health but for my spiritual uplift and creativity. The Health app on my phone counts the steps. Unless there’s a gale, I walk 10,000 to 12,000 steps a day. Sometimes in an hour-long walk, sometimes one walk in the morning, one in the afternoon. Usually on a rubberized track, sometimes along the river, on weekends around the reservoir in Central Park, generally with my mask down. A few months ago, I abandoned my clunky New Balance running shoes and upgraded to the recently introduced Allbirds Tree Dashers. They are the best purchase I’ve made since J. Press had a crazy sale on shirts. [To read about Allbirds Tree Dashers and buy a pair, click here.]
THE PULSE OXIMETER
In 30 seconds, it measures two things: my oxygen level and my pulse. Forget the pulse reading. The oxygen level tells me all I need to know: I’m not sick. I want my oxygen level to be between between 94 and 99. If it goes below 90, I may — repeat: may — be experiencing the early stages of the virus. Beats racing to the emergency room to find out. [To buy a Pulse Oximeter from Amazon, click here.]
CLEAN HANDS
Washing hands seems to have gone by the wayside. Maybe it’s now optional. I’m voting for caution. To buy Mrs. Meyer’s Clean Day Liquid Hand Soap, Lemon Verbena Scent from Amazon, click here. A companion product: O’Keeffe’s Working Hands Hand Cream. To buy it from Amazon, click here. Or Egyptian Magic. You get more, for less, at Costco.com. Click here.
VITAMIN C
This is not the Vitamin C that you regularly take. That Vitamin C may be a wonderfully powerful nutrient. But most of the Vitamin C in pills or capsules never reaches the bloodstream. Estimates of its absorption rate are less than 50%. Lypo-Spheric Vitamin C has a 90% absorption rate. Lypo-Spheric Vitamin C isn’t cheap. Thirty packets cost a dollar per dose. The Amazon reviews are extremely positive. And, as I say, I no longer need to buy Kleenex. [To read more on Butler, click here. To buy a 30 dose box of Lypo-Spheric Vitamin C, click here.]
VITAMIN D
Sixteen clinical trials show that taking vitamin D supplements reduces the risk of experiencing at least one respiratory infection, including influenza and pneumonia, by a third, with positive benefits seen within 3 weeks. [To buy Vitamin D3 Enhanced with Coconut Oil from Amazon, click here. To buy Vitamin D3 in Fruit Flavored Gummies from Amazon, click here.]
APPLE CIDER VINEGAR GUMMY VITAMINS
Apple cider vinegar contains potassium, which thins mucus. The acetic acid in it prevents germ growth, which could contribute to nasal congestion. [To buy Cider Vinegar Gummies from Amazon, click here.]
Walking past the funeral home near me last week, I took a picture of six cardboard cadaver boxes stacked in the back of a hearse. There was a name on every box. Like March, all over again.
I turned around and walked back to the track.
